CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-10-31T22:12:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-10-31T22:12ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/27537/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the south/southwest in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source of this CME is a filament eruption stretching between S18E00 to S40E40. The filament begins to erupt around 2023-10-31T20:00Z as seen in SDO/AIA 304 with clear deflection to the south/southeast towards disk center before exiting the SDO/AIA field-of-view. Brightening, moving/opening field lines, and a wide-set post-eruptive arcade are visible following the eruption of the filament in SDO/AIA 193, 171, and 304. Likely arrival signature is characterized by a rapid amplification of magnetic field with Btotal increasing from 5nT at 2023-11-04T15:45Z to 16nT at 16:57Z. A significant increase in density is observed as well. Further review of this arrival signature in consultation with Lan Jian at NASA/GSFC suggests that this arrival may be associated with CME: 2023-10-31T22:12Z. It is possible that the B rotations in late Nov 4 at the WIND spacecraft are due to the same CME.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-11-04T15:45Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-11-04T09:40Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 35.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.66667 - 3.66667
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CMELead Time: 43.65 hour(s)
Difference: 6.08 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2023-11-02T20:06Z
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